According to a research report released by CMB International, the firm maintains an "Outperform" rating on China's consumer sector.
The report noted that consumption momentum during the National Day holiday remained moderate, broadly in line with trends seen during the Dragon Boat Festival, with services consumption showing resilience.
From October 1 to 7, domestic tourism spending totaled RMB 738.4 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year on a daily average basis. The number of tourist trips reached 826 million, up 6.3% year-on-year on a daily average basis, outperforming the Dragon Boat Festival. Per capita spending declined 1.9% year-on-year.
Cross-regional passenger flows totaled 2.142 billion trips, averaging 306 million per day, up 0.6% compared with 2025. Daily revenue from consumer services rose 19.5% year-on-year.
On the services consumption front, trips lasting four days or more accounted for over 60% of domestic leisure travel, marking the first time since 2024. Visits to county-level areas and smaller destinations such as Dali and Dujiangyan recorded double-digit year-on-year growth, with average stay durations also lengthening.
Catering performance likely outperformed overall consumption. Tax data showed catering revenue rose 9% year-on-year, with snack food up 15.5% and fast food up 30.6%. Beverage revenue grew more than 200% year-on-year, driven by freshly made tea drinks.
Daily box office revenue fell 27.4% year-on-year. Hainan offshore duty-free sales rose 5% year-on-year from October 1 to 5, with shopper numbers up 13%, though per capita spending was estimated to have declined 7.4% year-on-year, remaining relatively weak.
On the goods consumption side, the fourth round of trade-in subsidy funding totaling RMB 62.5 billion was disbursed on September 30, supporting eligible categories including home appliances and communication equipment, with related sales growing 40.6% and 119.8% year-on-year respectively. Demand for smart, green, and health-related products was relatively strong, with smart glasses sales doubling year-on-year and outdoor sports equipment sales rising 10% year-on-year.
CMB International recommends focusing on staple consumer stocks with high earnings visibility, stable cash flows, and attractive dividends, as well as oversold discretionary consumer and tourism stocks supported by holiday consumption activities.