Sinolink Securities has released a research report stating that the recent divergence between Chinese and US tech stocks reflects a narrowing of the global tech stock landscape, driven by a redistribution of profits in the global AI industrial chain that has pressured the valuations of non-US tech stocks, compounded by persistently crowded trading structures in A-shares.

Looking ahead, amid ongoing uncertainty in AI investment and easing rate hike expectations, a portfolio of US AI tech stocks plus gold may serve as a hedging combination from a global investment perspective. However, for domestic investors, A-share tech stocks do not hold an advantage during the tech narrowing process. Domestic demand is also a potential hedging area, but weak realities constrain the sustainability of stock price performance. A comprehensive defensive approach remains necessary going forward, with energy plus gold being a relatively advantageous combination for A-share investors. The main views of Sinolink Securities are as follows:

Behind the divergence between Chinese and US tech stocks: valuation convergence under fundamental expectation pressure

Recently, the performance of Chinese and US tech stocks has shown a clear divergence. The direct trigger behind this is the potential sanction risks represented by the US FCC, which have led to concerns about future fundamentals and thus pressured valuations, while also being fueled by persistently crowded domestic trading structures.

Currently, after significant adjustments in A-share tech stocks, stock prices and valuations have somewhat reflected investors' concerns about future fundamentals, but it is difficult to say they have fully priced in: A-share tech valuations are still not cheap enough and even remain higher than US stocks. (1) From their own valuation levels, the PE TTM valuation percentiles of growth sectors represented by optical modules, PCB, and computing power chips are still above 60%, while PB valuation percentiles are even higher, all above 85%. Although dynamic valuations may be reasonable and ROE levels have improved, this means higher requirements are placed on future fundamental assumptions, and the basis for these assumptions is facing various uncertainties. (2) Compared with US stocks: current A-share tech valuations are still higher than US stocks, with PB slightly higher and PE far higher. By sub-sector: the PB valuations of A-share optical modules and PCB are still far above US stocks; the PE valuation of A-share AI chips is far above US stocks. The extreme scarcity and prosperity of Chinese tech stocks relative to the A-share market was the driving force behind their past excess returns and faster valuation increases; but during the global tech narrowing period, it has also become a hidden concern for future performance under a horizontal comparison of global tech stocks.

Two possible directions for the future US AI investment cycle

After hitting new highs, US stocks are now beginning to face their own problems: earnings are starting to diverge due to differences in calculation methods, as represented by OpenAI's revenue (US$50 billion vs US$70 billion). Although optimists and pessimists each hold their own views, it is clear that the future performance of US AI tech stocks also carries significant uncertainty, which can be discussed by scenario:

First, if the fundamentals of US tech stocks are confirmed to be sound, stock prices will return to strength. For A-shares, there may also be a recovery after a sharp decline, but the extent will not be too large and is likely to be weaker than US stocks. The reasons are as follows: (1) The fundamental mapping relationship between Chinese and US tech stocks has weakened. The core reason is that US tech stocks have shifted from siphoning global investment funds to redistributing profits after focusing on future returns, allowing profits from the global AI industrial chain to flow back to the US to support longer-term investment needs. This is an inevitable choice in a scenario where overseas profit retention is scarce. Therefore, although the FCC has not been implemented, as long as it remains pending, it will continue to pressure fundamental expectations for Chinese sectors entering the US industrial chain, represented by optical modules. (2) Trading-level issues have still not been fully digested. On Friday (2026-10-09), A-share tech stocks showed a clear rebound after the sharp decline, mainly due to ETF and market stabilization funds stepping in to support the market, as the margin maintenance ratio has returned to near previous lows, increasing the necessity of market stabilization. Even so, concentrated holdings by public funds plus contrarian operations are the biggest factors constraining the rebound: since the end of July, during the weak rebound in tech stocks, public funds have shown obvious contrarian operations in the electronics and communications sectors that were heavily held in Q2, namely reducing positions during rebounds and slightly adding during declines.

Second, if the fundamentals of US tech stocks also run into problems, then under a downward trend in US tech stocks, A-share tech stocks may find it even harder to remain unaffected. In this case, the siphoning effect of US AI on global capital will decline, upward pressure on real interest rates will ease, and combined with a sharp decline in October rate hike expectations, pressure from rising nominal rates will also ease. At that point, the opportunity to allocate to gold may instead arrive. Therefore, from a global investment perspective, holding US AI tech stocks plus gold may be a hedging combination. But for domestic investors, A-share tech stocks do not hold an advantage during the tech narrowing process. At this time, the energy sector, which has lower sensitivity to interest rates and dividend attributes, becomes a better substitute.

Domestic demand: a potential hedging option, with positive short-term changes but also concerns

Against the backdrop of high overseas interest rates and the divergence between Chinese and US tech stocks, in addition to energy plus gold, domestic demand is also a potential hedging area for investors who do not want to leave or cannot leave the market: (1) On the one hand, after years of continuous adjustment, the dividend yield of the consumer sector has become quite attractive, and some sub-sectors even exceed banks. (2) On the other hand, policies have recently been actively intensifying: on Friday, the Ministry of Finance set the tone to "increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts and step up efforts to expand domestic demand," and it is expected that infrastructure physical work volume will accelerate in the fourth quarter, providing some support for domestic demand. However, domestic demand also faces some concerns: September PMI data showed strong supply and weak demand, and the weakening of reality may not be over, which constrains the sustainability of stock price performance.

Allocation approach under a comprehensive defensive mindset

Since the proposal of active defense, the market has clearly cooled; since the proposal of comprehensive defense, market temperature has further declined. The difference between active defense and comprehensive defense is that the former recognizes market risks but still seeks assets with excess returns, while the latter focuses on preventing downside risks in asset allocation. For overseas investors, holding US tech plus gold can still achieve effective hedging, but this does not hold for domestic investors. Gold is the dominant asset in the next scenario, while what can be sought now is the energy chain, where demand has lower sensitivity to interest rates and the supply side has undergone major changes.

Based on this, the recommendations are: First, the energy and chemical chain represented by oil, oil shipping, and coal will continue to benefit from global restocking demand for energy, while also having dividend attributes. Second, against the backdrop of a slowing trend in the AI industry and diverging fundamentals, combined with a sharp decline in October rate hike expectations and gradually easing pressure from real interest rates, gold is ushering in an allocation opportunity.

Risk warning: Domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy may decline significantly.