On October 13, gold prices have attempted to rally multiple times but have consistently failed to break through the previous high of 4230. At the start of this week, prices surged to around 4216 before encountering resistance again, unable to effectively hold above the 4230 threshold, with the market continuing to trade in a rangebound pattern. Both bulls and bears possess near-term momentum, creating a tug-of-war environment.
From a longer-term perspective, I remain bullish on gold's upside potential in October, with the core logic rooted in the weekly chart's bottoming formation. The weekly chart has printed consecutive bullish candles, with bullish momentum gradually building. The initial target is 4400, with further upside potentially reaching 4500. There is no need to worry about a deep correction over the longer term.
Two Key Time Nodes to Watch
Looking ahead, two major events deserve close attention: Wednesday's CPI inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. The CPI reading will directly influence market expectations for the Fed's decision, and significant volatility is likely to emerge after Wednesday's data release. The Fed has already completed one rate hike this year, and the current economic environment does not support further aggressive tightening, making another rate hike in October unlikely. However, the market is still speculating on rate hike expectations, which has been supporting dollar strength and is the core reason why gold prices have repeatedly failed to break through resistance.
Short-Term Trading Approach
From a short-term trading perspective, the market should be viewed as rangebound. On pullbacks, consider buying low to play a rebound; if prices rise but continue to fail at the 4230 resistance level, be mindful of short-term pullback risks. There is no need to preemptively predict a one-sided breakout or breakdown. On the downside, watch support at 4150 and 4110.
Regarding gold accumulation products, frequent short-term trading and repeated operations are not recommended at this stage. For those looking to capture short-term spreads, positions can be established above 890, with arbitrage opportunities near 910. However, my overall approach is oriented toward the long term, and I have maintained positions and remained on the sidelines from the decline in early October through the current rangebound recovery phase. Only after gold prices effectively break above 4230 will gold accumulation products usher in a major rally, with a target of 950. This larger-scale move is worth waiting for patiently.
Investors should note that the above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Those who act on this information do so at their own risk.