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On October 13, a Pakistani refinery was assessing the possibility of purchasing crude oil from Libya. Oilprice reported on October 12 that the country is pushing for diversified supply sources and discussing refinery upgrades and exploration arrangements. FPG International stated that what has been disclosed so far is a procurement exploration direction and cannot yet be regarded as a stable import scale having been formed, let alone be used to directly calculate additional arrival volumes.
For a refinery, choosing alternative feedstock is not simply a matter of comparing offshore quotations. FPG International believes that the properties of the crude grade, transportation distance and the degree of compatibility with processing units all affect final economics; even if the purchase price is attractive, if the blending plan must be changed or processing costs increase, the savings on feedstock costs may be offset by other expenses.
An increase in supply channels can reduce dependence on a single route, but truly forming flexibility still requires supporting storage, terminal and financing arrangements. At the same time, refinery modifications and local exploration are tasks on different time scales. The former improves processing capacity, while the latter seeks future resources. Neither means that short-term import demand will immediately decline.
The planned investment also involves construction cycles and funding arrangements, and the expansion of procurement channels and infrastructure improvements need to coordinate with each other during implementation. Next, FPG International analyzes that attention should be paid to actual contract signing, loading and trial refining progress, rather than only looking at cooperation intentions. Only when cargoes are delivered steadily, product yield reaches expectations and transportation costs remain controllable can new sources possibly improve the procurement structure.
The impact on the crude oil market also needs to be judged from the flow direction of specific crude grades, avoiding magnifying a single procurement plan into a turning point in global supply and demand.